The Changing San Francisco Real Estate Market

Contrary to what many people hoped that the plethora of tech IPOs, many of them headquartered in San Francisco, would generate thousands of new millionaires and drive home prices and sales upward, they have, instead, declined steadily.

One reason for the decline is the Chinese have abandoned the market. Sales of real estate to Chinese buyers is down 56% year-over-year. ​

Sales of both detached and attached homes in San Francisco have been lower than the year before four months in a row. Not only have they been lower, they have been significantly lower.

Home sales were down 12.6% from last August. There were 166 homes sold last month. There were 201 condos sold last month, down 22.1% year-over-year.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 3.4% year-over-year. 

The average sales price fell 6.4% in August from July. It was down 0.3% year-over-year.

The median sales price for attached homes rose 4.9% from July, and, it was up 4.3% year-over-year.

The average sales price for attached homes was up 5.3% from July, and, it was up 3.4% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio, or what buyers are paying over what sellers are asking, was 19.8% for homes and 104.1% for condos/lofts. Both were lower than the month before.

Average days on market, or the time from when a property is listed to when it goes into contract, was down to 26 for homes and 33 for condos/lofts. 

In the chart below…

the blue area shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending sales of single-family, re-sale homes. The purple line shows momentum for the average price.

As you can see, pricing momentum has an inverse relationship to sales momentum.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for homes.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

P.S. The FHA requires all condo projects to be re-certified before they will make a loan. To find out if the condo project you’re interested in is eligible, go here: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm.

The graph below shows the median and average prices plus unit sales for condos/lofts.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call me.

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